The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

Last week was a big week for markets, as the trade war that everyone has been warning about has finally arrived. Despite what some of our most epic posters might tell you, the trade war is not off ...

An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in ...

Ever since Trump announced his trade war and Wall Street goliaths like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs said that they did not price Trump’s signature policy into their market expectations, the yield ...

The Treasury Bond market went into convulsions last month following the “Liberation Day” announcement of broad new high-tariff policies (April 2). Because Treasurys play such an important role in the ...