The most likely range for 3-month bill yields in 10 years remained at the 1% to 2% range this week. The probability of being ...

In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields and spreads. Read the latest update in the article series, as of February 6, 2026.

A multifractal spectrum called a weighted Cantor set model can describe how galaxies cluster, which is similar to other ...

Research is casting prediction markets as policy-relevant forecasting tools just as state regulators escalate efforts to ...

The FDA has opened the door to the use of Bayesian statistical methods in clinical trials. The worry: Introducing ...

A prospective study of first-degree relatives of patients with MS found that this high-risk population faces significantly ...

AI & Society, states that algorithmic systems often construct competing but equally valid “model-worlds,” offering empirical support for a philosophical claim that evidence alone cannot uniquely ...

While Super Micro Computer got caught amid recent tariff-related anxieties, the smart money seems relatively confident about ...

Researchers from the University of British Columbia argue that a widely used method to understand and predict flood risk has led scientists to miscalculate how forests can prevent major flooding. The ...

Prediction markets expect a Bitcoin price rally, but on-chain data and whale moves suggest a very different outcome may be forming.

Researchers in Germany assessed lightning risks in livestock-integrated agrivoltaic systems, identifying key injury ...